I think the only thing you can count on in ZCash is going to be the volatility that we are going to be looking at, and I think you need to be cautious about your position size.
ZCash rallied Wednesday, bouncing from the 200-day EMA. By doing so, it has saved itself in the sense that technically we are still in an uptrend. That being said, we have recently seen this market sell-off quite drastically, and we have seen a lot of negativity when it comes to the crypto world. If that keeps up, ZCash and other smaller coins like it will fall.
Because of this, you need to keep an eye on Bitcoin, because it will lead the way when it comes to other coins. We need to see Bitcoin do well, and ZCash will follow right along. If we do rally, we need to break above the 50-day EMA to really get momentum going, perhaps allowing the market to take out the massive red candlestick from the Monday session. That means that ZCash could go looking to reach the $175 level, and breaking above there would be a bullish sign, perhaps allowing the market to take out the shooting star from the previous session.
Looking at this market, it is easy to see that we have been very noisy, but at this point, we are at roughly a 50% Fibonacci retracement. This is a market that will continue to go higher given enough time, but the alternate scenario is that we break below the 200-day EMA and maybe even the $140 level, sending this market much lower. In that scenario, the market would almost certainly go looking to reach the $120 level, and in a very negative turn of events could reach as low as $100.
At this point, I think we are at a major inflection point, perhaps deciding where we will go for the next several weeks. I think the only thing you can count on in ZCash is going to be the volatility that we are going to be looking at, and I think you need to be cautious about your position size, only adding as it works out in your favor. Ultimately, I think the market will continue to be very susceptible to external pressures, most likely to follow how the world feels about risk appetite, as ZCash is pretty far out on the spectrum when it comes to what people are willing to risk.