Our expectations indicate more decline for the index during its upcoming trading.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined during its recent trading at the intraday levels, to record losses in its last sessions, by -1.05%, to lose the index about -348.58 points. It settled at the end of trading at the level of 32,899.70, after its rise in Thursday’s trading by 1.33%, During the past week, the index decreased by 0.9%.
Stocks came under pressure after the strongly positive non-farm payrolls report in the US, which saw around 390K jobs added in May. This was higher than the 325,000 that economists had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.
The report fueled already aggressive rate hike bets by the Federal Reserve. Investors are now anticipating 50 basis point gains at the next two Federal Reserve meetings, and an 84% chance of a 50 basis point hike at its September meeting. Meanwhile, the US dollar halted its two-week losing streak, rising nearly half a percent over the course of the week. Stocks somewhat responded with those aggressive bets.
The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.6%, compared to the expected 3.5% rate. The labor force expanded by 330,000, and the labor force participation rate recovered slightly but remained below its pre-coronavirus level.
Technically, the recent index’s decline came as a result of the stability of the important resistance level 33,271.90. This is the resistance that we had referred to in our previous reports, in light of its trading within a descending corrective price channel that limits its previous trading in the short term, as shown in the attached chart for a period of time (daily). This is with the continuation of the negative pressure of its trading below the simple moving average for the previous 50 days. We notice the start of the influx of negative signals with the relative strength indicators, after they reached areas that are highly overbought. If it is compared to the movement of the index, it suggests that the divergence is starting to be negative, which doubles from negative pressures on its upcoming trading.
Therefore, our expectations indicate more decline for the index during its upcoming trading, as long as the resistance level 33,271.90 remains intact, to target the main support level 32,000.