It’s only a matter of time before something ugly happens to cause more selling and panic in the markets overall.
Gold markets initially tried to rally on Tuesday but then turned around to show scenes of exhaustion yet again. As long as interest rates continue to be very strong in the United States, it puts a bit of a drag on the gold market. Furthermore, there’s a lot of concern out there about getting liquid, and some traders will sell gold in order to pay for other positions that they are suddenly in trouble with.
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From a technical analysis standpoint, we are threatening a major support level in the form of an uptrend line, and of course the $1800 level was right here as well. In other words, there are a couple of different reasons to think that perhaps buyers may show up in this general vicinity. If we were to break down here, then it’s likely that the market will open up into a new flood of selling, possibly sending this market down to the $1750 level. When you look at this chart, it’s obvious that we are trying to break through this support level, and I do think that we have further to go. In fact, we have formed a massive “H pattern”, which is generally a very bad sign.
If we get a breakdown at this point, it’s likely that it will be rather ugly. On the other hand, if we were to turn around and show signs of bullish pressure, then it’s not until we break above the $1880 level that we could see any real follow-through. There is the possibility that we bounce here to stay in the overall range, and right now we have not managed to break down, but really at this point, one would have to think that it’s only a matter of time before something ugly happens to cause more selling and panic in the markets overall.
If we were to turn around and break above the 50-day EMA, it’s possible that we could take off to reach the $1920 level, followed by the $2000 level, but that seems to be very unlikely. Ultimately, we would need to see a massive change in the interest rate markets, which at this point does not look to be very likely. I believe it is a scenario where we will continue to see sellers come in on rallies.