Outlining the Path of Least Resistance

The pair will likely continue rising as bulls target the first resistance of the standard pivot point at 1.06.

Bullish View

  • Buy the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.0600.
  • Add a stop-loss at 1.0500.
  • Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bearish View

  • Set a sell-stop at 1.0510 and a take-profit at 1.0450.
  • Add a stop-loss at 1.0600.

The EUR/USD pair held steady on Monday morning as investors focused on the upcoming US housing and consumer confidence data. It is trading at 1.0556, which is slightly above last week’s low of 1.0475.


US Durable Goods and Housing Data

The EUR/USD pair held relatively well last week even as Jerome Powell talked about the need for more tightening. In testimonies to Senate and House of Representative, Jerome Powell said that the bank will continue hiking interest rates until it sees evidence that inflation was falling. This means that the bank will maintain a hawkish tone in the coming months.

The pair also rose as volatility dropped slightly. The closely-watched CBOE volatility index retreated by more than 5% last week. As it dropped, American equities staged a strong recovery, with the Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 index rising by more than 2% on Friday.

The EUR/USD pair also rose even as the energy crisis in Europe continued. Russia has already slashed natural gas deliveries to the region and there are worries that the situation will continue worsening in the coming weeks. In a statement, Germany’s economy minister warned that the country would have a Lehman moment if Russia stops flows completely.

The next key data to watch will be the upcoming US durable goods and pending home sales. Economists expect the data to show that durable goods orders declined sharply in May as business confidence dropped and inflation surged.

Pending home sales are expected to have dropped by 4% in May after falling by 3.9% in the previous month. Last week, data showed that new and existing home sales dropped in May as mortgage rates rose. The average mortgage rate rose to 6%, meaning that the sector could continue struggling in the coming months.

EUR/USD Forecast

The EUR/USD pair has been in a strong bullish trend in the past few days. It has moved slightly above the 25-day and 50-day moving averages. At the same time, the pair has risen above the standard pivot point and the ascending trendline shown in black. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and MACD have pointed upwards.

Therefore, the pair will likely continue rising as bulls target the first resistance of the standard pivot point at 1.06. A drop below the key support at 1.05 will invalidate the bullish trend.


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