It’s not surprising that we seem to be running in circles.
The DAX went back and forth on Wednesday as we continue to flirt with the €12,750 level. This is a market that is going to continue to focus closely on global growth because so many of the German index’s major players have a massive amount of profits coming from exporting. The euro is much lower than it normally is so that in turn does offer a bit of a catalyst, but at the same time, it’s low for a reason. That reason is the lack of energy, something that does not necessarily suggest a massive growth in the economy coming.
On the upside, the €13,000 level will attract a lot of attention, but we also have significant resistance near the €13,200 level, and I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we see sellers come back into this market. The 50-day EMA is closer to the €13,400 area and is dropping. Ultimately, rallies continue to be looked at through suspicion. If we do break above the 50-day EMA it’s likely that the market could open up the possibility of a move to the upside.
On the downside, if we break down below the €12,500 level, then it’s likely that the DAX could continue to go much lower. The €12,400 level underneath is where we had bounced from, so if we were to break below it, then the DAX could fall apart. At that point, the market could go down to the €12,000 level. The €12,000 level has a long history of being supportive and resistant, so it makes quite a bit of sense that the market will continue to see that as important.
Look at this chart, it’s not until we break above the €13,600 level that I would consider this market turned around, and it is likely that we could go looking to the 200-day EMA offering resistance. Ultimately, the market continues to see a lot of downward pressure, because this is a market that just has no way to go higher easily, especially as we continue to see a lot of economic damage done globally. Looking at this chart over the last several weeks, you can see just how choppy and noisy it’s been, so it’s not surprising that we seem to be running in circles.
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